Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.770932 6.867568 8.079553 9.513341 11.157890 12.979765 15.145166
2025-02-16 3.793735 5.168795 6.862538 9.078778 11.876084 15.261521 19.637352
2025-02-23 2.607703 4.016720 5.927710 8.654341 12.380897 17.224617 23.912012
2025-03-02 1.842952 3.181288 5.162675 8.214550 12.680963 18.844476 27.827288
2025-03-09 1.412095 2.701172 4.763538 8.156778 13.417228 21.043861 32.657369
2025-03-16 1.083160 2.288073 4.363073 7.992497 13.921278 22.903888 37.119745
2025-03-23 0.934276 2.146006 4.364370 8.442652 15.389136 26.284988 44.053376
2025-03-30 0.770699 1.929794 4.187642 8.549528 16.289889 28.845084 49.915169
2025-04-06 0.631657 1.723674 3.984412 8.565639 17.017582 31.164640 55.546208
2025-04-13 0.517237 1.537758 3.780549 8.539651 17.650133 33.355978 61.101893
2025-04-20 0.479879 1.523638 3.923531 9.193785 19.560710 37.820736 70.660715
2025-04-27 0.419949 1.435198 3.889069 9.483283 20.814661 41.237124 78.669865
2025-05-04 0.368624 1.358615 3.875442 9.831361 22.249089 45.137545 87.870264
2025-05-11 0.303377 1.221063 3.693407 9.796281 22.937928 47.770179 95.080197
2025-05-18 0.237836 1.056830 3.409170 9.488009 23.038514 49.326962 100.489712
2025-05-25 0.181487 0.897411 3.097963 9.062124 22.837177 50.285767 104.864967
2025-06-01 0.148830 0.808136 2.956159 9.017036 23.435700 52.808346 112.249532
2025-06-08 0.118805 0.713825 2.775960 8.844335 23.728366 54.741868 118.635371
2025-06-15 0.109375 0.703526 2.848655 9.337107 25.568941 59.885168 131.394527
2025-06-22 0.093227 0.653999 2.785130 9.454363 26.547932 63.331255 141.051177
2025-06-29 0.077857 0.599351 2.691042 9.472210 27.291324 66.334854 149.999230
2025-07-06 0.064353 0.545849 2.586817 9.444009 27.917868 69.128839 158.673904
2025-07-13 0.062582 0.559489 2.728858 10.156279 30.429834 76.080817 175.992433